Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)

March 23, 2025 Josef Pazderka

This is not a financial advice. I am not a licensed financial expert. These are just my personal opinions for entertainment purposes only.

...

Very recently, Trump signed a bill that will impose tariffs on several countries starting from the 2nd of April. On the day of the signing markets had already reacted.

Bearish move.

Let's talk about it...

Greedy plebeian scum xdddddd

Since it was confirmed that Donald Trump would be the next president of the United States back in November. A lot of money has been poured into the "stonks" market.

Quite a bit of dumb money if you will.

People 🤑 trying to chase the bag 💰

The macro fundamentals that are often viewed as the indicators of how well the economy is doing have not changed or improved at all. And yet regardless the money has poured into the market inflating PE ratios.

In particular, the inflation (CPI) numbers have not improved drastically.

The inflation did cool down a bit in February more than experts had predicted. It did so by a relatively slim margin. Nothing to be worthy of celebrating yet.

The uncertainty of today's political climate did not allow the FED to cut further and thus provide liquidity that the bulls might have been hoping for.

Someone could even say that the market was acting...

dumb...

Predicting miracles that did not come.

Canada trade war + The Greenland thingy...

In order to stabilize the market, we first have to broaden our understanding of geopolitics in order to understand certain political chess moves that might have been happening since the inauguration.

Starting a tariff war with a neighbor and one of the biggest allies and trading partners in the entire world might seem a bit retarded at first but...

Let's give it a try, I might have the answer for you that you might be looking for.

P.S. Notice how I used the word "might" I would love to take this moment and reemphasize that this is just my humble opinion and my opinion only.

For entertaining purposes only...

of course xdddd

Climate change is real !!!

At least the Pentagon believes it...

Since the planet is warming up and the icebergs are melting, this creates new economic opportunities. The trading route that is highlighted in the picture above with the color pink.

Goes from China straight to NYC. (Approximately)

China is still the biggest exporter of goods into the United States by far.

This is not going to change any time soon. (Most likely)

This new trading route going through the Arctic Ocean is a million times shorter than the trading route going through the Pacific Ocean. And soon. Approximately in like 20 to 30 years will also be much faster. Once the icebergs melt down enough.

This creates new security risks. Where there are cargo ships. There need to be military (NAVY) ships to protect them. Where there are military ships, there need to be cute little "freedom" docs to park them in.

You know what is better than 750 overseas "freedom" bases??

Even more beautiful freedom bases 😅😅😅

At least that is what the Pentagon thinks.

Now... Have u noticed by any chance ?? 😅

May I draw your lovely attention to the map back up top again...

pwety pwese?? 👉👈🐹🎀

May i??

Have you noticed how the cargo ship that is following the new pink trading route is doing a little Canadian "drive-by" And a little drive by Greenland as well... Have you noticed that??

And well that is where we are today.

That is the problem that brings us all here.

Haters will say it's an AI xdddddddddddd

History does not repeat. It rhymes.

Remember back in 2k16...

When the whole world almost went to a nuclear Armageddon over a couple of tweets.

good times 🙃😬😅

🍙: "We will test nuclear missiles wherever we want. Whenever we want to."

🍊: "My rockets are bigger and thicker. We will win. And we will keep winning."

🍊: "We will win so much you will be tired of winning."

🍙: "🙄"

And well... At the end... They met up... Hung out for a bit... Chillaxed...

did a little handshake for the cameras 📸 and it all ended well...

Hopefully...

The Canada trade war thingy and the Greenland thingy will end soon.

Most likely, they will sign a new defense (military) treaty. Where the US military will be able to rent a reality state. And build new NAVY docs in the Beaufort Sea and around the tiny shitty islands up north where no one lives.

Maybe they will renegotiate in a way where the US Navy will use the already existing Canadian bases that are up there. Idk...

Most likely in this whole package, they will probably sign some kind of a new economic treaty where there might be no tariffs between the US and Canada or maybe just very small traffic on both sides. Idk...

The senior representatives from the US and from Canada will... like... meet up and shit... There will be a little bit of signing and shit... Handshakes... few Hugs here and there... maybe even some cute little Eskimo kisses xddddddd who knows 😅

might get pretty wild xddd

This whole thingy might be over sooner than we all realize...

We all need to just chill the fck out a little...

P.S. Again notice 😅 How I said "might be"

I don't know what is going to happen. Nobody does. I am just telling you my opinion on what I think is the likely scenario that might happen in the near short term future.

P.P.S. If you are an American by any chance...

and you don't know how to read 😅

then click here !!!

btw... u are welcome...

I know all of this...

The pentagon people, who are hiding those aliens in their basement, know all of this...

And now you know it too 😙

u r welcome...

U do not have to kiss my feet...

Unless...

U really want to...

in that case...

fcking nothing... dont be fcking weird bro... nobodys kissing anybodys feet tf is wrong with u bro... why u still reading this tf... u fcking wierdo... tf ...

#Hopecore

My favorite reader and long-term follower has suggested that today's world needs a bit of positivity and optimism. And so I have decided to take him up on that and give you guys today a tiny dose of a hopium. #hopecore

now before we go ballz deep on this one...

Allow me to take a bit of your precious time again and remind you that...

This is not a financial advice. I am not a licensed financial expert. These are just my personal opinions for entertainment purposes only.

just in case 😅

This is not some grandiose conspiracy...

This is actually so easy that even an average plebian who writes for a legacy newspaper magazine could understand this... simple math really...

Introducing... Tax cuts...

The less money you pay to the government...

The more money you have in your pocket...

It's as simple as that...

It ain't science...

Just a simple math...

This tax cut will disproportionately benefit the ultra-rich.

I wanna talk about the top 1%...

Their tax cuts will be... just... gargencious in comparison...

And that is where my point for stock market optimism comes from...

There are only so many yachts that you can buy. Eventually, all this materialistic consumerism becomes a blend beige nonsense.

Most of this extra capital that the one-percenters will be able to horde extra thanx to the generous Trump's tax cut plans will be deployed to assets (Stocks, Real Estate, Commodities, Securities, maybe even bonds)

It might take a while, but the extra capital will enter the market eventually.

Hopefully, it won't be too late.

But regardless...

We cannot be counting on that...

We have to play it right...

We have to play it tight...

We need a safety...

Parachute

Listen... Honestly...

I don't even see Red like that...

I just see dark Green 💚😅

But just in case. We need to go over some helpful tips that will hopefully help you to ease your mind.

The way I think about option contracts is that...

It is an insurance. It is NOT get rich quick type of scheme...

It is an insurance. You are buying yourself an insurance. Allow me to elaborate...

Let's use an example...

I have purchased 1000 shares of a publicly traded company called Orange. This company creates small portable hardware that allows you to communicate with your loved ones. I love my decision to buy stocks of this company and I want to hold them for decades and decades.

I am long Orange.

I am bit worried. In recent market moves the price of single share of Orange went down. I think it might keep going down in the future as well, but I do not want to sell right now. I want to hold this company ideally forever.

I will purchase put contracts (short options) as a form of insurance. The underlying asset of these contracts could be either... you know...

100 shares of the company Orange...

Or it could be 100 shares of an ETF fund that tracks a broader market index like S&P 500 or Nasdaq.

Anyway, I am creating a tiny little levered short position that serves as insurance. Protecting me from lower lows. You know... If the dip keeps dippin' 😅

(This posish is supposed to be tiny compared to the rest of my longs in my portfolio)

Let's go over... what will happen if I decide to do this...

1) The market is rebouncing and bulls are taking over. I am losing all of the principal that I have paid in order to create these put contracts. (This scenario is the most likely outcome)

2) We have a little bit of an economic slowdown.

(We don't use these types of nasty words around here. This is a truly family-friendly blog. But just to clarify. When I say the economic slowdown I mean a tiny little recessh)

In that unlikely scenario, it is all about you. It is all about how you set up these put contracts.

When the whole market is down 50%?? Do you wanna be down 10%?? Do you wanna be down 5%?? Do you wanna be up 5%??

Remember! Historically speaking, there have been many many scenarios like these. Temporary short-term panic that ended surprisingly quickly. The first scenario where you are losing all the principal is just much much more likely.

That is why if you decide to implement this strategy, then just be mindful of how many contracts you really wanna purchase because you will most likely lose all the money that these contracts will cost you.

This is why this should be just a tiny little posish compared to the rest of your portfolio. This should just be insurance so that if the very very unlikely second scenario comes, you can still easily sleep at night.

Bare in mind!

Options are contracts between you on one side and a bank on the other side.

(Or instead of bank it might be a market maker like Citadel that provides liquidity to the market)

There is a lot that goes into the price of the principal. Like for example the demand that has been surprisingly high recently. Let's not bore ourselves with unnecessary details. Shall we??

All you have to remember is that these market makers use all of the historical data from the market. Feed it to AI and then calculate the likelihood of certain things happening.

In other words, given the all scenarios combined together, the market maker is 60% of the time in the money and you as the customer are 40% of the time in the money.

Some premium customers like large hedge funds might have a 55:45 type of split but that ain't us pal xddd that ain't us xddddd

That is why I believe that this beautiful gorgeous financial instrument called options should be used as insurance against the very very unlikely scenario that you might be afraid of. But it definitely should not be used for gambling because the house has always the edge.

(Btw... that is how they make money.

Otherwise, they would never issue you these contracts in the first place)

Just keep that in mind babes 😘 that's all...

China, Mexico, EU tariffs thingy...

I would assume that the Canadian tariffs are going to be lifted soon. I have suggested why that might be at the beginning of this amazing wonderful information-packed article.

But we haven't talked about the rest of the tariffs yet.

Let's dive even deeper.

The real reason why we have tariffs in the first place is very simple...

Bidenomics ran a budget of 6.8 trillion dollars in 2k24. They raised 5 trillion (approximately) in taxes and borrowed the rest 1.8 trillion.

You cannot give your billionaire friends massive tax cuts and then expect to raise 5 trillion dollars again.

That is why they wanna implement tariffs that are meant to fill in the hole in the budget. Also, the Trump campaign promised us not to borrow anymore. Not to inflate the debt anymore. (Spoilers: That ain't happenin. They passed the temporary borrowing budget even without my homeboy Thomas Massie)

It seems like the tariffs won't fill in the massive hole in the budget and that is why we can see the US government cut the benefits to veterans. Cuts in Medicare. Cuts in USAID. Cuts in education etc. etc.